Time-slice epistemology for Bayesians
نویسندگان
چکیده
Recently, some have challenged the idea that there are genuine norms of diachronic rationality. Part this challenge has involved offering replacements for principles. Skeptics about rationality believe we can provide an error theory it by appealing to synchronic updating rules that, over time, mimic behavior norms. In paper, I argue most promising attempts develop position within Bayesian framework unsuccessful. sketch a new surrogate draws upon features each these earlier attempts. At heart discussion is question what exactly means say one norm another. surrogacy, in given context, be taken as proxy degree which formal and traditional epistemology made compatible.
منابع مشابه
Epistemology in Cyclic Time
Consider the scenario, in which human civilization undergoes periodic eras of progression and regression, and consequently, changes in cosmological knowledge are cyclic. There exist solutions of general theory of relativity, such as the Gödel universe, in which the cosmos is rotating. If the real universe is indeed rotating, than this would be a reversion to rotating universe models, used in an...
متن کاملAbducted by Bayesians?
This paper discusses the role of theoretical notions in making predictions and evaluating statistical models. The core idea of the paper is that such theoretical notions can be spelled out in terms of priors over statistical models, and that such priors can themselves be assigned probabilities. The discussion substantiates the claim that the use of theoretical notions may offer specific empiric...
متن کاملSome Problems for Convex Bayesians
We discuss problems for convex Bayesian decision making and uncertainty representation. These include the inability to accommodate various natural and useful constraints and the possibility of an ana log of the classical Dutch Book being made against an agent behaving in accordance with convex Baye sian prescriptions. A more general set�based Bayesi� anism may be as tractable and would avoid ...
متن کاملBayesians, Frequentists, and Physicists
PHYSTAT2003 brought statisticians together with particle physicists, astrophysicists, and cosmologists. This paper, which is taken from the text of the keynote address, concerns the uneasy relationship between Bayesian and frequentist statistics, with particular attention to the “neutrino problem”: how to set confidence limits for a parameter known to be non-negative. Model selection, an object...
متن کاملTime-Slice Experiments
In the time-slice method, an atmosphere model is forced by the greenhouse gas concentration corresponding to a certain time in the future, e. g. normally at the time of CO2-doubling, while the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice distribution are taken from a coarse grid transient simulation. This method has the advantage that the model can be integrated with high resolution over several d...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Inquiry
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0046-9580', '1945-7243']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/0020174x.2022.2105943